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Saturday, September 20, 2025

Emergent Characteristics and Behaviors

Emergent Characteristics and Behaviors

 

There is a phenomenon which affects clusters of similar things in a way that doesn’t impact the individuals which make up the group. It is called Emergent Behaviors (or characteristics.)

 

In the simplest terms a single brain cell exists, is alive and can replicate itself. It doesn’t however exhibit consciousness. It takes some minimum number of cells all synaptically connected for that to happen. Two or three cells don’t reach the threshold but when the threshold is reached consciousness can become emergent. 

 

Bee and ant populations act in similar ways.  Put enough bees in a location and they suddenly and without education construct a hexagonal matrix of hive cells, promote a member to Queen, go out to collect pollen to make honey. Below the threshold population individual bees just die.

 

Feral dogs act to obtain food, sleep safe and select mates. This is pretty much the same for domestic canines. But even the fluffy friendly ones can act differently when they get together outside and form a pack. The pack behavior emerges from somewhere deep in their genetic history. 

 

Inanimate objects seem to be able to elicit emergent characteristics and behaviors too. We are watching AI enabled computers and algorithms at the dawn of their existence.  Where they will go is a complete unknown. Whether they will follow our human examples or avoid our failings is yet to be seen. 

 

That which the inanimate objects ultimately exhibit is highly dependent on our human interactions. Here is where this concept will rile up a portion of the people who read on. Another portion of the readers will see the premise and agree. 

 

A gun is just a gun, a tool for intimidation and killing. It can be used to kill animals for food, protection and sport. It can be used to intimidate, deter crime and kill people. How it is used is up to the person whose finger is on the trigger. That person may be a “good” person, a “bad” person or a combination of those extremes. 

 

Individually, each firearm is an innocent object which can be used in a multitude of ways. Collectively, they exhibit one of those emergent characteristics as mentioned above. 

 

Although the choice of model is made by a human, some models have a nature which is irresistible to specific age groups, gender and culturally specific types of people. The model which seems to exude to strongest affinity is the semiautomatic long barrel gun with high capacity bullet holders. 

 

Various psychologists, criminologists and laymen assert that the blame for the carnage resultant in mass shootings is solely the result of the individuals who perpetrate the crimes. Some people try to blame the weapons. 

 

The truth lies in between those extremes. The firearms themselves hold no malice. They cannot load themselves, choose targets or fire on crowds. The human perpetrators handle those actions. Those humans could not do any of those things if the weapon itself was not so freely available. 

 

The single rifle has a different character than a long rack of similar weapons displayed on the wall of the gun shop. Something emergent this way comes. There is a latent behavior in the egos of young men whose brains have not yet fully developed. When those latent behaviors get in close proximity to the weapons, an emergent behavior can manifest. 

 

The functional test of how this works rests in the fact that there are hundreds of thousands young (predominantly white) men in this country. Some portion of them have societal grievances and most of them never act out on them with lethal firepower.  

 

The actual numbers of mass shooters seem to be attracted to the same weapon. Many potential mass shooters are stopped by their inability to access the “correct” weapon. It’s when these innocent males and the innocent weapons get together they exhibit the emergent behavior which takes so many lives. The doubly tragic fact is most of the eventual shooters do not have preexisting criminal records. They may have behaviors which telegraph their future actions, but so often those facts are ignored.  The Law is very well versed in prescribing prohibitions against individuals and their behaviors but is majorly lacking in what is the cause of those actions and behaviors. The Law completely misses the inclusion of emergent behavior which manifests in specific situations. It has no suggestion for how to deal with the phenomenon.

 

The most logical solution is to never let the two elements ever get together. The problem with that approach is there is a myriad of couplets which can combine to create a perilous outcome. Staying with the human/gun example, Abusive spouses who obtain guns are a leading source of murder statistics. This not to claim that if no guns were available that no significant other murder would occur. Other combinations would increase to fill the void. The real issue is, relationship violence is widespread in this country and in nearly every part of the world.

 

In 1959, two ex-cons, Perry Smith and Richard Hickock, murdered four members of the Clutter family in Kansas. During their trials the defense tried to make the case for the existence of a "third personality" which emerged when the two men got together. The argument was not successful and the two men were executed on April 14, 1965. The premise was neither of the perpetrators would have never committed the murders if they were alone. However, once the crimes were committed there was no way to justify not convicting them.

 

Economic stressors lead to emergent behaviors which are strikingly similar across many social groups. There is something in the human mind which finds expression in violence. Providing powerful weaponry only serves to amplify that expression.

 

Drivers on a busy freeway have the propensity for "platooning" where they all bunch up in tight formations leaving long gaps between. In such platoons massive collision pileups regularly occur leaving many injuries and dead bodies. Experts do not have a solution to those events in the same way as we don't have a solution to the phenomena of mass shooters.

 

In both examples, the mechanical elements are merely tools which millions of people use daily but only a small percentage of people misuse. A possible solution to the mass shooter behavior is the curtailment of the manufacture of the weapon of choice, limiting all purchases and a systematic reduction in their presence at large.

 

To those people who say owning guns is a "right", while presently true, rights are granted, regulated and removed by legislative and judicial decrees. There may very well have been a time when the language of the Second Amendment of the US Constitution made it necessary and possibly essential. Amendments do come and go over time. The 18th Amendment prohibiting the manufacture, import and sale of alcohol for consumption in 1919 lasted only until 1933 when the 21st Amendment repealed "Prohibition." Soft rights such as those covered in Roe v Wade were only in effect due to Supreme Court declaration. On June 24, 2022 the rights granted were overturned by the newer Justices.

 

While once viewed as an essential policy of the United States, gun ownership has become destructive to the stated goals of the nation. There remains valid purposes in allowing citizens to possess firearms for personal protection, sport and comfort. The technologies of manufacture and performance of the weapons have far surpassed any notions Congress ever had in passing the 2nd Amendment.

 

When drug use becomes too widespread and the effects far too dangerous, we pass laws limiting their manufacture, sale, import, mere passion, distribution and use. Automobiles are dangerous tools for transport. Therefore we license operators and require training, insurance and enforcement of related performance laws. We limit the size speed and weight of what vehicles any specific person shall be allowed to operate on public roadways.

 

Emergent behaviors also arise in the population of automobile drivers. Similarly, the characteristics of the vehicles themselves add to the carnage we see every day on the highways. We don't reduce and eliminate the motor vehicle rules.

 

 

Monday, July 14, 2025

Flash Flooding and The PIC

Into the Mystic


It has been awhile since I have posted on the topic of the PIC. Truth be told there has been so many examples and many of them are repeats. Multiple power outages. Multiple data breaches. Many intensified storms and floods. Examples aging infrastructure failures. The list is extensive. 


My warnings and calls for implementing failure resistance never seem to reach the correct ears. 


Here and now I am writing about the massive flash flooding event of July 4 in Kerrville, Texas.  The rainfall total is a measure of magnitude in inches of rain. Beyond that number is several convergent factors which led to the tragedy of hundreds of people swept away in the currents and drown. 


My days of study was in hydrology in college and working with the Army Corps of Engineers, watershed computer model, called STORM. 


Two of the intensity factors for river flooding are how fast the rain falls (in inches per hour) and how all the tributaries combine to make peak flow. 


The Guadalupe River is a known flood hazard from many decades past. FEMA had produced flood hazard maps for the river reaches where the most life was lost. 30 years ago there was a major flooding incident in nearly the same locations. 


These maps are drawn based on topography and both upstream and down stream conditions. The maps do not consider existing or future land use. Those conditions are a matter of private property rights. Local authorities can permit or deny permits to build structures of various uses in the flood zone. 


These regulations are supposed to protect land owners from their short sighted plans. Likewise they are supposed to protect the public from unknowingly residing in the danger zones. 


During many decades of continuous occupation a Christian Girls Camp grew up next to the river. Camp Mystic, Guadalupe site was the one where 27 children died in the flood. Hundreds of others escaped the torrents because their sleeping quarters were further up the river bank. 


Other people who lost their lives were also residing in structures which were located in the flood plain. 


This rainfall event was labeled as a One Hundred Year event. That nomenclature is not a suggestion the flood only happens once a century but is a measure of rainfall. The flooding is related to those other factor mentioned above. The measure of how deadly a floor may be relates to what time of day it happens, the season and how many people choose to be in the flow channel when it does. 


The owners of Camp Mystic knew their camp location was dangerous. They even petitioned to FEMA to revise its flood maps to exclude some of its existing building from the constraints of the regulations. Additional flood insurance was thereby avoided. Buildings could be kept where they were. New construction could be added in areas known to be in peril of flooding. 


The claims some officials make that they did not know a flood of this magnitude could happen may indeed be true but they chose to ignore the possibilities. 


The town also chose to not foot the costs of a flood warning system. The proposal was put up to the voters to make a decision they were wholly unqualified to make. They voted their personal interests of saving money and not trusting the federal government to plan and build the warning system. A lot of bucks got passed.


Flash floods are nothing new. Their intensity and frequency is.  Every year uninformed or stubborn people camp in dry washes of New Mexico and other arid states only to be caught in a sudden flood event. People continue to build their homes where the scenery seems pleasant. They too get washed away when nature turns against them. Of course not everyone gets flooded in their poor decisions. Therein lies the fragility which results in the Collapse. They believe they will be the ones who don’t get killed in the flood. Probability suggests they can live in a hazardous location for years or decade s and not be present when the catastrophe comes. 

 

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Photo of the Day - Feb 12, 2024

Tree at Greenwood Cemetery
 

Go see my photos at Lens4anEye on Clickasnap.com and be the first to comment. There are many different subject. Something for everyone.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Lunar New Year Year of the Dragon

 

Dragon peering ove the parapet in Santa Fe.

To all my Asian Readers and followers: Have a great celebration.

See all my other photos at ClickaSnap.com

Image is available on many items at my Merchr store...

Lens4anEye Shop 

 

Sunday, December 24, 2023

My MERCHR shop of ClickaSnap Images

Visit my MERCHR shop of ClickaSnap images and products. Here is the link https://lens-for-an-eye.clickasnap.shop/

Here is what it looks like.


There are loads of great gift ideas there at reasonable prices. Help spread the word.

My email is Lens4anEye@Modalchoice.com 

My ClickaSnap profile is Lens4anEye and can be seen at ClickASnap.com/Lens4anEye

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, December 15, 2023

ClickASnap has partnered with Merchr Hub for Print on Demand

ClickASnap has partnered with Merchr Hub for Print on Demand services. I added several dozen products with my photography imprinted. Please visit my site and consider a purchase during this holiday season. The link to the site is at bit.ly/Lens4anEyeShop


 My ClickASnap profile of images is at Lens4anEye and contains hundreds more images which I have not yet added to the Merchr Shop site. If you email me which image you would like to see printed on one of the Merchr products or as wall art. I will put a specific effort on it for you. Lens4anEye@modalchoice.com

Lens4anEye

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

The PIC in Everyday Situations

The PIC in Everyday Situations

 

Principle of Imminent Collapse suggests that everything in our experience is on the edge of failure and all it takes is The Nudge to precipitate the cascading failure.

 

I first posed the Principle of Imminent Collapse in 2005 and it has manifest thousands of times worldwide ever since. It has been a specific to me several times but mostly I have avoided dire consequences by understanding it. 

 

Once on a long business trip I had driven about 600 miles to South Carolina. I was there for two days driving and parking in numerous spots without incident. On the last day when getting ready to drive home. My brake pedal went straight to the floor. Fortunately I was only moving at about 2 mph.  Only minutes before that total hydraulic failure I had had my vehicle moved to where I would load my equipment. The man who drove it had experienced not problems. 

 

A master cylinder brake line had been corroding at a fitting unobserved for quite some time. It was at that moment the metal burst leaving me without any brakes. 

 

This all transpired in a parking lot of a transit agency with no other vehicles immediately nearby. A few minutes later I would have been on the highway cruising on home. This catastrophic failure could have been deadly. 

 

The repairs had to wait until the next day after having the vehicle towed to a repair shop. It took all day to get done from having to locate parts and fabricate the shape of the pipe. It turned out the shop replaced the failed section of pipe and all the others which were equally old. 

 

When I got home I had my usual mechanic inspect every hydraulic line, the calipers, master cylinder and the ABS block. I was not going to have a repeat occurrence of an identifiable weakness. 

 

In advance of some upcoming interstate road trips I decided my existing four tires would be replaced before I headed out. They all had good tread depth but might harbor hidden flaws which could manifest the Principle of Imminent Collapse.

 

The 4-digit number imprinted on the sidewall on the tire, 4114, means the tire was manufactured in the 41st week of 2014. Specifically, my tires were nine years old. I had been pushing the envelope for a while. Every mile brought them closer to one of the four experiencing tread separation or a blowout due to failure of the steel belts. 

 

Being I am the originator of the statement of the Principle of Imminent Collapse itself and am fully aware of the perils of ignoring it, I spent the morning waiting in the installation of four new tires. 

 

I had to fight the reluctance of replacing four good looking tires. I had to resist the temptation of procrastination. I had to rationalize the fact that 95% of tire failures occur in the last 10% of its service life. 

 

Yes, a nail or shard of glass can fail a new tire. A pothole can crack the seal at the bead. A manufacturing defect may be present. However, all of those events are beyond the control of good management of the Principle of Imminent Collapse and the Nudges which brings on the failure. 

 

If one watches for the imminent failures they can be averted. The failure might not be stopped but horrendous outcomes can. 

 

Similarly, the phrase “a stitch in time, saves nine” is an early wisdom and admonition to heed the PIC and its consequences.