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Sunday, December 14, 2008

When Did It All Change?

When Did It All Change? posted: Dec 14, 2008

This question is posted across several blogs because it applies to all the subjects of those blogs. It's All Tuna begs the answer to when did everything become Tuna and why? The Principle of Imminent Collapse has presented many examples of the principle in action, but why is it that we repeatedly fail to do anything about it? Is THAT another of the characteristics of the PIC? And the Vulnerable Geometry is only vulnerable because we construct it that way. Why?

This post seeks to elicit examples of when it all began and what evidence, albeit in retrospect, can be seen that has led us from the Before to the Now. An example of this question and answer is thus: People driving on the road today are so rude, ignorant and aggressive that they endanger everyone around them and sometimes commit murder over simple things. When did this start and what caused it to happen?

With that in mind, what is the answer to these:

When and why did it become more important to make a profit than to make a product or service that made life better for people?

When and why has sex replaced love? Songs in the 1950s and earlier were all about love and relationships. The 1960s saw some transition. The 1970s and on it is sheer sex and show.

We used to see starving children and mobilize efforts to save Biafrans. Rock stars sang and did benefit concerts. We had Farm Aid. We had Feed the Children. Now we hardly even know the place called Darfur. What has happened?


If the answers were simple, we would have solved our problems already. But identifying the causes and the time line is an essential step in getting to that goal.

Vulnerable Geometry at Blogspot

Sustainable Geometry at Blogspot

It's All Tuna! at Blogspot

Principle of Imminent Collapse at Blogspot

www.itsalltuna-blog.com

www.ThePIC-Blog.com


Thursday, September 11, 2008

Democracy and the Principle of Imminent Collapse

Democracy and the Principle of Imminent Collapse

The existence of democracy itself is an improbable phenomenon in a heavily populated global civilization. Today a multitude of factions vie for recognition and participation in the global forum. Even the inventors of democracy, the Greeks and later the Romans, did not allow just anyone to cast his vote for or against a law or action of the state. Athens was full of Athenians who voted and a slave class of people who did not. One did not merely move to Athens or any of the other city-states and sign up as a voting citizen.

Then, there was a ruling class of learned and/or powerful people who constituted the intelligentsia who could plan and implement the business of the state. The blacksmith, the stone masons and the shepherds first had no interests of state nor and say in the matters of state. Slaves certainly were not valued as contributors to the running of the state. Today, we hold as self-evident that everyone should have a say in the matters of selecting representatives who will ultimately conduct the state’s business.

The plebiscite is only for the lesser offices not the decision making process that determines when and with whom we go to war, who we obliterate in bombing raids, how we reduce the enemy to a quivering mass of humble flesh. Our learned and powerful representatives meet to make a show of supporting or condemning each and every law, penalty, budget item and regulation.

Men and women stand for election and re-election to be the ones who cast their votes for and against the things that are to be for the good of the people. It is difficult however to determine what is truly good and not good for the people. A tax might allow the community to have a safe bridge to cross into the next county or state, but the very same tax might send marginal family incomes into a fatal downward spiral to insolvency. Reducing tax burdens may allow taxpayers to buy essential goods and services, but the lack of funding of healthcare leads to poorer aggregate health and higher costs later. This fiscal relationship may impact the same individual directly. Lack of spending for public transportation services for people who do not drive causes their friends and families to have to bear the cost of the transportation themselves.

In the 4th to 3rd century BC, there were no multi-national corporations that earned multi-billion dollar profits while neglecting human needs and exploiting cheap labor and the masses’ need for some commodity. Well there was salt; and salt mines; and people who were sent to the salt mines. People needed salt; wanted salt; were sometimes paid in salt. And if there were wildly profitable corporations in ancient Greece, they certainly would have felt justified in paying the campaign expenses of a Senator or Caesar or two.

Democracy has become synonymous with Capitalism in the American sense. Ironically, it has become synonymous with Communism and Marxism in South America. In the USA sense, bringing democracy to the people of a country means deposing a dictator and opening their markets to American investors.

But all of that aside, democracy must spring forth on its own from its intrinsic nature, from the unified will of those people who are the “demo’ of the “cracy”. One cannot force a people to become democratic. When a people finally do decide that a voting system for representatives is what they want, it is a fragile thing indeed. Young democracies typically see a dozen or more parties and affiliations emerge to promote a candidate to tilt at the windmill of the incumbent who probably seized power in a coup and held that power for many years before being pressured to step down or is deposed by CIA backed insurgents.

A few assassinations of prominent candidates or a couple of improvised explosive devices tossed into the polling places can unset any gains toward stabilization of a new government. Everyone has his particular agenda to promote in these latter days of democracy. Just imagine even the 13 states which were the original 13 revolutionary colonies of England trying today to agree on the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and the whole three branches of checks and balances of the Federal government along with its expanded powers and authorities as acquired since the first continental congress. Britain would have had ample opportunity to sneak back in and re-establish colonial rule while we were bickering over who had the prettiest powdered wig and curls or the flashiest shoe buckles.

We name-call and degrade the personal attributes of they who would otherwise be wise statesmen and women. We mash together a bit of truth with a dash of lie, then fold in a whole lot of opinion then blend it all with innuendo and revisionist history, and half bake it. For all that effort we get a democracy soufflé that is fluffy, puffy and light. If we are not careful a single nudge will make it fall in on itself. We have all been busy erecting the thin scaffold of party politics in a race to get one over on the competition all the while neglecting its long term stability. No body sneeze just now.

The acid rhetoric between candidates of even the same party let alone candidates of opposing parties has eroded the stone foundations of our nation. Senators and Congress-persons cannot debate the merits of any proposed legislation without smearing the reputations of every legislator in opposition. Where is the end of this contention? Will we reach Extinction or a New Equilibrium? While legislators and their backers spit vitriol at each other, the interest on the national debt grows over $39 million.1 And that doesn’t even include the increased spending and the increases of obligation for budget items for which we have a long standing commitment.2

The American Presidents of recent administrations, along with all of their advisers, financial backers and mouthpieces have lead the nation to the precipice and will be only a nudge to send us tumbling into the morass. The Principle of Imminent Collapse postulates that it takes only The Nudge to manifests the imminent collapse. The Soviets discovered the Principle of Imminent Collapse as they kept trying to compete in the Cold War against the much larger and more sophisticated economic machine of the West. They were drawn into intractable military conflict in Afghanistan and bankrupted themselves. The Soviets put themselves in the position of immanency and the West provided the Nudge.

Today the financial sector of Western Capitalism has put itself in that very same position and little groups of dissenters plot as how to create that Nudge. There are so many possible Nudges to use. One or more in combination are so easy to employ when the tower is so flimsy and lousy with rot.

Democracy and the Western financial system are extensively intertwined. The true electorate is the businesses which buy and sell influence to create and maintain a climate which is conducive to the long term survival of enterprise life even as the atmospheric climate becomes hostile to biological life. In the Terminator movie franchise, it is the rise of sentient machines that takes over the world. Orwell wrote of Big Brother who rules the future (now the Past) of 1984. In both worlds we the people failed to heed the prime warning: Make a system as powerful and extensive as you want, but do not let it have control of its own on/off switch.

Switching off the machines and enterprises upon which we have come to depend may be painful but when they run amuck it sometimes becomes necessary. Either way we have to live with the consequences even when the clock of progress is set back too.

One significant flaw inherent in democracy is that the people can vote to do something that is totally wrong and destructive. The people can vote to stop being their “brother’s keeper” and let the less fortunate among us sink. When we allow that to happen, we have already set in motion our own decline.

1 10 mos. Fiscal 2004 Interest / Hour was $39,494,260.00 ($Mil) from http://www.geocities.com/cmcofer/interest.html

2 Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Military.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Expecting Collapse to Solve Our Problems

Expecting Collapse

A great many people are expecting collapse. I know a few of them personally. If you are not one yourself, you undoubtedly know a few yourself anyway. There is a danger in expecting collapse to solve your problems. The " Truth About Tobacco " campaign says it quite succinctly: "you don't always die from tobacco."

As recently as September 1, 2008 President George W. Bush did get his wish and received a more than plausible reason to stay away from the RNC in Minneapolis-St. Paul. In this case he was relieved to have a major storm event in the Gulf of Mexico to watch from The Whitehouse rather than take a chance on flying to the Convention cities and be caught off guard once again by a tricky hurricane that everyone else could see coming for five days.

As the world approached the most recent millennium anniversary millions of the inhabitants of this Big blue Marble came to believe that the end was near. Preachers with wide exposure on the airwaves warned everyone to repent and prepare. Some people even disposed of all their worldly possessions in order to be more worthy of the Rapture when all the righteous ones would disappear and the graves would be opened as those sleeping in the certain hope of the resurrection would rise and float to heaven. For the dead, this was a reasonable pastime. For the living it was a path toward the Principle of Imminent Collapse.

If a person believes that the end of civilization, nay, the entire realm of Creation, is about to be destroyed by God, then there is no reason to take any action for self preservation or for the preservation of civilization itself. There is no reason to pay off those debts, especially the national ones. The problem arises is when the end doesn't come.

We can see the mentality of the end-time philosophy in the lack of planning by the US Government. FEMA was not anywhere near competent and ready to take any coherent action at the time of Katrina. And we had a President at the time who relies heavily on his faith to guide his decisions. It is all well and good that a parent seeks the guidance of Providence in deciding how to raise a child, but one cannot extrapolate the value of that intervention in national and global politics, because we have to realize that the other sides are praying to the same god and seeking conflicting outcomes.

Many day-trading short sellers have found themselves studying the business end of a Smith and Wesson over the miscalculation of imminent collapse of a particular stock price and hoping that the price falls soon enough and fast enough to beat the margin call.

The residents Heaven's Gate cult compound listened to their spiritual leader Marshall Applewhite and took their lives in advance of the "recycling" of the Earth and their only chance of survival was to depart while leaving their physical bodies behind. Their 1997 escape was a bit pre-mature at the very least. Even if the Earth is to be recycled, the construction schedule has been revised.

Millennium madness spurred on many such actions by less than stable people and groups. Men slay their wives and children. Women microwave their babies. Lone gunmen (boys) rampage on high school and college campuses. The idea that there is nothing to lose takes root and everything else becomes meaningless. The psychiatric imbalance is there all along, latent, imminent, waiting for the Nudge.

Individual borrowers listen to the rhetoric that says 'buy now pay later', extract the equity of your home today, and repay it if you can. And if you die first, have your insurance policy pay off the balance. Do it now, don't be left behind.

Left Behind became a best-selling book series of the tele-evangelist set. It portrays the Rapture of the Church and all of its worthy righteous brethren. Only the most sincere worshippers get to go to Heaven. And the time is now. But like Linus Van Pelt sitting in the pumpkin patch on Halloween, we are all left waiting, and waiting, for the imminent collapse to come.

Some people read into the prophecies that certain events must come to pass before the end actually comes and ushers in the new world. They look deeply into ancient texts and reinterpret what has long been believed. The Bible Code, the DaVinci Code and now the Nostradamus Code follow the 1988 certainty of the 88 Reasons Why Rosh-hash-ana 1988 Must be the Time of the Church's Rapture. A lot of people believed the telling of this lore and acted accordingly, or completely irrationally.

The ubiquitous nature of the Principle of Imminent Collapse must be resisted if we are to not be complicit in its manifestation when it was only latent before. Plans must be made. Consensus must be reached and budgets prepared. The size of the budget might be painful today since we have already wasted too many decades on indecision and wandering around in a legislative quagmire led by inept or wrong thinking Presidents but they will only become even more painful later on.

Hoping for imminent collapse can be an evil thing. The inept and negligent managing of the funding of the Social Security fund had left us with an almost unfundable entitlement. The baby boom birth rate from 1946 to 1964 created the largest population of future retirees in history. That coupled with advancements in health care that greatly extended our life expectancies means that the actual retiring population is much larger than originally calculated. Planners did extrapolate these numbers but legislators did not adopt the plans.

Then we had annual inflation rates created by borrowing and spending funds we did not have and the price of such large volume consumptions like oil quintuples in price. A lot of short term investors made a lot of profits but we were left without the funding of that huge SSI entitlement. Maybe the problem would go away if we ignored it. Maybe a miracle would be bestowed upon us and the problem would go away. Maybe 1 million people who were just ready to retire would suddenly die and not need Social Security after all. A monthly payment of $1,900 over ten years for 1 million people is $2.28 Trillion. Maybe the Rapture is a solution after all.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

When "Failure is Not an Option"

When "Failure is Not an Option"

This declaration has two contexts. The one where is it a motivational motto for military men to take the hill and for football players to break through the defense and make the touchdown, it is a truly inspiring war cry. The phrase has a nobler genesis with Gene Franz, Mission Director for the Apollo moon missions in the 1960s after Jim Lovell issued his understated but undying words, "Houston, we have a problem." But the other context leads to the Principle of Imminent Collapse. Where failure is declared to not be an option, there is and need to bury the truth about a manifest failure and to sequester the bearer of the bad news. In the Roman times, the messenger of bad news was killed, not because the recipient was angry, but because he did not want that bad news being leaked to the troops or enemy. The messenger might have become aware of the nature of his message and passed it along out of the chain of command that is essential in a military context.

Many corporate leaders have picked up on the value of those immortal words but diminish them by their invocation for less than worthy circumstances. All too often, a zealous manager or executive uses "failure is not an option" as a shield to protect his turf and to advertise that his enterprise is doing everything possible to succeed. He is trying to convince himself and his contemporaries and detractors alike that everything was being done to succeed.

A colleague, Joyce Callahan, approached me one day with a sign that she had made up on her computer that said, "If Failure is Not an Option… How Can We Learn From Our Mistakes?" It was then that I understood the imminent collapse context of that famous phrase. No body wants to admit a mistake. Mistakes make us look bad and makes the people around us look bad. Many times, we don't get the opportunity to remain in a job after a particularly unpopular decision or action that resulted in a huge embarrassment or public outrage. Refer to Marv Alpert on page 102.

Unless a person is so incorrigible that he refuses to learn from mistakes, the best person to fill a position is one who has already been through the mill on a particular situation. I would trust a person who got caught up in a mistake not to do it again over one who had never experienced that situation. Dishonest people are yet another aspect of that scenario. Trying to decide which type a particular person is, is the essential task at hand.

The human heart is one of those organs that benefits from small incomplete blood flow blockages. After a series of not lethal blockages, the circulation paths become redundant thereby saving the person from a much more serious heart attack later in life. The younger a person is when the first heart attack happens, the more likely that person is to die from that attack. Count those initial partial blockages as "mistakes" and one can see that we can "learn" from them.

But when failure is not an option in the second context, one cannot admit to the failure and therefore gains no beneficial results from it. Resources must be diverted to covering up the failure and assuring that the news doesn't get out. Deceit becomes institutionalized. Stress levels increase. Productivity wanes.

Commanding results and declaring failure to not be an option is the hallmark of an enterprise in crisis. It is one about to meet at a crossroad with the Principle of Imminent Collapse. When the Apollo mission was in jeopardy and Gene Kranz announced that failure was not an option, he also marshaled every available resource and set them to the task of solving the problem. The mission was no longer to get to the Moon, but to get home safely.

In my travels to numerous cities to meet with public transportation managers and operations, I hear a lot of comments from drivers and mechanics, dispatchers and supervisors, that relate to this concept of failure not being an option. In one focus group of bus drivers, they related the scenario that when they already had a standing room only crowd on the bus and there was a customer waiting to board who is sitting in a wheelchair, they are regularly told by the radio dispatcher to get that person on the bus even if they have to get everyone off first to accomplish that boarding. Failure is declared not an option. This is crisis mode. There is no Plan B. Not having a Plan B also leads to the Principle of Imminent Collapse.

Bus drivers are regularly instructed to use the bus that is assigned to them irrespective of whether that vehicle is appropriate to the route, works correctly, or will ultimately be able to complete the run without a breakdown. Crisis mode. Get the vehicle out there now and solve the breakdown later. Failure to make a full schedule rollout is not an option.

Many years ago the Soviet method of industrial production was explained to me as such. Theirs was a command economy. A Central Committee directive said that the People need a production level of 1,000 refrigerators per month from a particular plant, and failure was not an option. Heads could literally roll if 1,000 units did not ship each month. So a truck breaks down while delivering compressors to the plant and only 900 compressors actually get delivered that month. The measure of performance is the commanded shipment of 1,000 refrigerators, so 1,000 units are actually shipped. Failure was averted. But what of the 100 compressor deficit? 900 refrigerators are shipped that actually work and 100 that don't. They get "fixed" in the post-sale period after the customer calls that the refrigerator is broken already. No failures. At least none that anyone is willing to talk about. This leads to the periodic after-market remedies that must be performed every time a truck load of compressors doesn't arrive on time. No one is ever held accountable for the delivery of compressors, because no one ever lets the Central Committee know about it; because failures don't happen.

Man's Failure To Understand How Things Work

Man's Failure To Understand How Things Work

Many of these situations cannot fully be divorced from the Natural Systems because many of these situations are predicated on Man's lack of understanding of how things work. By declaring forest fires evil, he must marshal his resources to fight this evil even to the point where he creates a new problem. The 100% suppression policy has created forests that perpetually are on the verge of collapse due to the accumulation of natural litter and small trees that are easily ignited and proceed to big burns of the grand older trees that last for weeks.

When we spread fertilizers and insecticides on our crop fields to enhance the quantity and quality of the yields, we get improvement on one side of the equation and degradation on the other.

We have burned fossil fuels for hundreds of years. Before that we burned surface carbon that circulated in the environment on annual or maybe decade-long balanced equations. The failure to understand that there is an equation, and that anything done on one side of the equation affects the other side leads to the Principle of Imminent Collapse. In earlier times it was reasonable to assume that the trees, plants, phytoplankton in the oceans and the water itself could absorb all the carbon we could liberate. However the high rate at which we are introducing of these components into the biosphere is surpassing the biosphere's ability to sequester or otherwise neutralize these destabilizing effects. We cannot dump 8 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year without expecting some movement on the other side of the equal sign. Something will happen as a result. Based upon our state of knowledge of the relatively new sciences of complex systems and ecology, we now understand how even small fluctuations in the concentration of these powerfully controlling constituents can lead to a disastrous cascade of disruptive events in our biosphere which, once started, cannot be stabilized or recalled.

A new question that has been asked is: what does all that carbon in ocean water do to the ability of aquatic life to thrive or even exist?

Wood has roughly ½ the carbon content of anthracite coal and therefore has a lower BTU energy content. However, wood is produced over a very short period of time as compared to coal and therefore cycles the carbon over a much shorter time interval. From the standpoint of maintaining stability in the complex chemical and biochemical processes in the biosphere, taking the carbon out of the environment and putting it back within, say, the 20 years for a tree to grow, is a far better method -- no matter what tonnage you use -- because the net carbon change in the atmosphere over the time period is Zero.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Mortgage Foreclosure Survey

Just Three Questions:
When? Where did you move?
Your Zipcode?
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Thursday, April 17, 2008

one picture

This is a scene from the bridge over the curve in Relay, Maryland. The tracks split and head north into Baltimore and south to Laurel, MD.

Monday, April 14, 2008

The Domino Model

Author's Note: The book cover images in the side margins of this blog are my own publications of eBooks available at both Amazon and B&N. Please take a moment and go to the sites and read about them. Then if you like it, buy one or two.
The Domino Model and the Principle of Imminent Collapse
This principle is not the same as the statement that everything put together sooner or later falls apart. Nor is it a principle of entropy wherein everything is moving inexorably from a higher state of order to a lesser state of order, or a higher level of energy to a lesser level of energy. Although many collapses stem directly from the involvement of Man, the principle incorporates the opportunity for humans to intervene and alter the outcome if they first observe the precursor conditions, recognize the approaching failure, then act to circumvent the deterministic outcome. Moreover, the extraordinary ability of the human mind to anticipate future events and outcomes, is sometimes lost in the pursuit of gains that will only become the nudge that brings down his endeavors.

Unlike the stacking of Dominoes in complex patterns that are designed to execute from the first nudge and ultimately bring down ALL the tiles, the Principle of Imminent Collapse acts to topple a less than universal set of randomly oriented tiles placed in an area of finite size. Once one tile is toppled, the affect is short lived and the destruction is contained within an event horizon. Tiles placed in a region of the area remote from the ones that fall may never even realize that a toppling event has taken place. They may stand through several nudges that bring down a large number of tiles. 

Similarly, one toppling event that takes down, say 10% of the tiles, may insulate a region from the affects of toppling events on the far side of the already toppled tiles. Man may act to re-erect some or all of the toppled tiles thereby not allowing the condition where every tile is toppled and the end-game condition is reached. A major event may disrupt a great many of the tiles and create an aftermath that takes a long time to recover from. Real worlds analogues are the Great War (to end all wars) and WWII (another war to end all wars.)

In order to further model real life events, let us make the tiles have a varying height, width, depth, shape and weight. By this modification, a sturdy tile might withstand the nudge of an adjacent tile by virtue of its mass or its resistance to overturning because of its large base area relative to its height.

The purpose to describing this model it to show that many variables act to make a system stable or unstable. Becoming too homogeneous or too highly aligned in ANY direction is a cause for alarm and is an invitation to the Principle of Imminent Collapse. We see such homogeneity in the thoroughbred species of dogs, cats, horses, etc. When the DNA is not diverse enough, a single virulent organism is capable of decimating the population and defects in muscle and bone can be propagated and destroy the usefulness of the breed.

Too many Republicans or Democrats in one or both houses of Congress; the FAA seeing eye-to-eye with the airlines; the FDA being ever-ready to approve a new drug; the FCC being controlled by a far right conservative Administration; All of your soldiers lined up in a row wearing red uniforms and with muzzle loading muskets; these are all examples of the dangers of the homogeneity of a system. They are all easy pickings for the PIC.
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Honey Bees and the Principle of Imminent Collapse

Honey Bees and the Principle of Imminent Collapse




Bees all over the Earth have been buzzing around doing what they do for thousands of years. So what is it that they do? They build a hive. They make and tend their Queen. She produces all the eggs. The workers fly out into the sunlight and collect pollen on their legs. This pollen is converted into food for the hive members, the queen and all the larva that will continue the population of the hive. This food is quite tasty and sweet and we love it as Honey. The bees make lots of it. We collect it and they make more.

Bees have developed a symbiotic relationship with the plants that produce the pollen that bees take home for dinner. The plants which are rooted in one place for life cannot go out and about looking for genetic diversity to propagate their species. To overcome this handicap (not to be confused with a disability) the plants have developed some ingenious tactics in order to transmit their DNA from plant to plant across vast distances.

Some plants shed their pollen to the wind in hopes that it will land on a suitably receptive female plant organ. Other plants make sticky pollen that is carried around by ants, the hairs of mammals, butterflies and moths, birds and even the industrious bee. The plants secrete chemicals that attract the insect or other transporter and they give food to them in exchange for their services as a DNA messenger.

In the case of the bees, they are highly mobile, highly efficient transporters. Consider that every kernel of corn on a cob has a silk tube that extends out of the husk into the sunlight and in order for it to grow, a bee must deposit a bit of corn pollen on the tip. This pollination process is repeated every year across the agricultural belt of North America and the other continents of the globe. Truly a global enterprise.

Other crops: wheat, barley, clover, and dozens more all need the services of the pollinators. The crops thrive and the bees thrive. They are locked in a relationship that neither side dislikes. The equilibrium has been maintained for these thousands of years.

But what happens when that balance is lost? The bees have performed the practice of biodiversity that has made certain crops stronger and resistant to disease, climate variables, and the plants’ own tendencies toward narrower breeding conditions. The same cannot be said of the bees themselves. They are extremely narrow in their own reproductive practices. There is no DNA exchange between hives. Only the DNA of the Queen is used and she is provided male DNA from a select few hive-produced males who have not been very diverse in their own DNA.

The result of this practice is like the Domino Model mentioned in another section. Too little variation is present in the DNA of the entire hive and from hive to hive they are all sisters. When a disease or other environmental impact comes along, all the bees in all the hives are susceptible to that change. The bees will probably not become extinct over some disease, chemical agent, climatic change or and combination of them. The reduction in bee populations will probably reach a new equilibrium and they will go on for thousands of years more. From the bee point of view, that is natural and perfectly acceptable. It has happened over and over many times in the lineage of bees. What is not acceptable is the level of pollination that results from a large-scale loss of bee populations.

Humans have staked their lives on the lowly honeybee. We have grown our population on the supposition that crop pollination would continue uninterrupted, unabated as we continued to produce yet another billion of our numbers. We forged ahead without regard to sustainability (a future topic) of our civilizations.

In the USA we borrow money indiscriminately without regard to our ability to pay back our debts. We sprawl our urban areas without regard to fueling our personal automobiles. Our population continues to grow older without preparations for how we will afford to pay for food, shelter, fuel, transportation, taxes, medical services and our debt. And we are not alone in this shortsightedness.

China continues to grow its population in Quarter Billion Person Annual Increments. They must build 4 NYC-Equivalent Cities every year just to keep up with their population growth. They must also fuel and feed that growth PLUS the increased expectations of the existing Billion-Plus population that is also growing older just as we are. At least we have a semblance of a retirement financial system, i.e. Social Security, while they do not.

India. See the previous paragraph.

The Principle of Imminent Collapse states that everything is on the verge of collapse and it only takes a nudge to make it fail. What is the Nudge that will cascade through the global markets and lead to either extinction or a new equilibrium? What about bee population die-offs? What about one too many summers of draught? What about one too many mild winters where the snow pack is too light to make the Rocky Mountain rivers run full all year? What about 1 degree of average global temperature?

A “New Equilibrium” is a pleasant euphemism, is it not? It may sound rosy, warm and fuzzy, but it means millions of dead humans. It means mass starvation. It means Resource Wars where no one is exempt. And most of all it means that we did it to ourselves. Not that we can control the weather or even positively impact the climate, but we can plan for what we will do when the nudge happens.

The bees are already dying. Some beekeepers have lost all their colonies. Others, just most of them. The cause is yet unknown. The cost in Dollars, estimable. But the cost in food reduction and future losses of bees and food production is not. Is the bee colony die-off just a short term anomaly or is it a foreshadowing of the Nudge? What are we doing to make the bee population loss have a minimal impact on our food supply and food prices?

Most of all, do we have the intelligence to find an alternative or are we mere beasts that are allowed to live at the pleasure of nature? Relax. Everything is well in hand. We have plenty of time to solve this problem. If collapse comes it will not be for many decades. Go shopping.
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