The PIC in Everyday Situations
Principle
of Imminent Collapse suggests that everything in our experience is on the edge of failure and all it takes is The Nudge to precipitate the cascading failure.
I
first posed the Principle of Imminent Collapse in 2005 and it has manifest
thousands of times worldwide ever since. It has been a specific to me several
times but mostly I have avoided dire consequences by understanding it.
Once
on a long business trip I had driven about 600 miles to South Carolina. I was
there for two days driving and parking in numerous spots without incident. On
the last day when getting ready to drive home. My brake pedal went straight to
the floor. Fortunately I was only moving at about 2 mph. Only
minutes before that total hydraulic failure I had had my vehicle moved to where
I would load my equipment. The man who drove it had experienced not
problems.
A
master cylinder brake line had been corroding at a fitting unobserved for quite
some time. It was at that moment the metal burst leaving me without any
brakes.
This
all transpired in a parking lot of a transit agency with no other vehicles
immediately nearby. A few minutes later I would have been on the highway
cruising on home. This catastrophic failure could have been deadly.
The
repairs had to wait until the next day after having the vehicle towed to a
repair shop. It took all day to get done from having to locate parts and
fabricate the shape of the pipe. It turned out the shop replaced the failed
section of pipe and all the others which were equally old.
When
I got home I had my usual mechanic inspect every hydraulic line, the calipers,
master cylinder and the ABS block. I was not going to have a repeat occurrence
of an identifiable weakness.
In
advance of some upcoming interstate road trips I decided my existing four tires
would be replaced before I headed out. They all had good tread depth but might
harbor hidden flaws which could manifest the Principle of Imminent Collapse.
The 4-digit number imprinted on the sidewall on the tire,
4114, means the tire was manufactured in the 41st week of 2014. Specifically,
my tires were nine years old. I had been pushing the envelope for a while.
Every mile brought them closer to one of the four experiencing tread separation
or a blowout due to failure of the steel belts.
Being
I am the originator of the statement of the Principle of Imminent Collapse itself
and am fully aware of the perils of ignoring it, I spent the morning waiting in
the installation of four new tires.
I
had to fight the reluctance of replacing four good looking tires. I had to
resist the temptation of procrastination. I had to rationalize the fact that
95% of tire failures occur in the last 10% of its service life.
Yes,
a nail or shard of glass can fail a new tire. A pothole can crack the seal at
the bead. A manufacturing defect may be present. However, all of those events
are beyond the control of good management of the Principle of Imminent Collapse
and the Nudges which brings on the failure.
If
one watches for the imminent failures they can be averted. The failure might
not be stopped but horrendous outcomes can.
Similarly,
the phrase “a stitch in time, saves nine” is an early wisdom and admonition to
heed the PIC and its consequences.